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How will the bankruptcy of the oldest tour operator in the world, Thomas Cook, affect the tourism market?
I think that in the near future there will be a collapse in prices at all resorts in the world. And there are also bad thoughts about the impending global crisis, since the oldest monster of the tourism industry has been deprived of lending.
Translated automatically from Russian. View original
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10 subscribers  • asked 2019-09-235 years ago
Answers  •  61
аватар AllOverTheWorld
Well, I wouldn’t escalate so much about the global crisis, one of the main reasons, the oldest company was still not ready for the 21st century, the age of the Internet and online. It's not about lending, the Chinese were ready to buy back the lion's share of the shares. But again, the real reasons, I think, we will never know.
What are the prerequisites for a collapse in prices? A lot of tourists book everything on their own, access to air and housing is freely available. At Turpraada, package tours and independent tourism were repeatedly discussed.
I would be tense if I was a client of growing TO Intourist, a subsidiary of Thomas Cook
аватар klichko
The British are in a panic (although this is not about them)), were left without paid hotels. Money will be waiting for a long time. Europeans plan for a year, new plans build just as long. There can be no talk of any self-tours, especially sharp ones. While diversification happens, hotels will massively lose visitors (already, consider lost). Judging by my hotel, all the Anglicans (and there are more than half of them) have already said goodbye to trips for the year ahead. TK was tied with many (not only foreign tourists and bibles) So we'll see ...
аватар camomille
also interested in the impact on the market. theoretically, there should be some kind of collapse, since the niche was vacated.
Perhaps Thomas Cook is such a kind of Kodak from the tourism industry, which could not adapt to new market conditions and missed an important trend.
and the global crisis of the tourism industry happened with the advent of Booking and the like. why do I need maintenance when I can buy tickets and book a hotel without any problems? I judge myself - this year we went on our own for the first time, then again and again ... in general, they got a taste)) now I have tickets and hotels are booked almost a year in advance for 5 trips.
more about the feasibility of using maintenance services. for example: I recently helped friends plan a trip to Tenerife. took a flight from Kharkov (connections) + luggage + transfer + normal hotel for 12 nights, HB. for comparison - on the same dates, a tour from Join from Kyiv with similar parameters to some kind of viper for 10 nights costs 100 euros more in Belarus. so why do you need TO?
аватар camomille
https://www.rbc.ru/business/23/09/2019/5d8880869a79474c023f6866
about bankruptcy + some analytics
аватар ollennka
I'm generally shocked that they refused to lend ... Almost two centuries of impeccable reputation - and suddenly bankrupt!
And although I am not a fan of package holidays, because for a lot of people this is the most comfortable way to go on vacation. (((
PS: Intourist is not a subsidiary of Thomas Cook, Intrist will soon be a hundred years old. Legally, this is a joint venture.
аватар camomille
so not the fact that they refused. there, perhaps the shareholders could not agree among themselves.
===
The additional capitalization meant that the share of the Chinese Fosun, which had a 13% stake in the Thomas Cook Group at the end of the 2018 financial year, would increase. In addition, banks - holders of bonds of the tourist holding were to enter the capital.
Accordingly, the shares of all other shareholders had to decrease, which depreciated their investments.
Read more on RBC:
https://www.rbc.ru/business/23/09/2019/5d8880869a79474c023f6866
аватар ollennka
In short, in any case, it's a pity for both the brand and the tourists...
аватар klichko
They flew to Gran Canaria by self-tour, but it was far from smooth and very troublesome (but stormy). And in egi often and according to mood. I strongly hate to take in advance, eternal shoals. Our hotel on various bookings costs a lot of money, the TO-monopoly is much more profitable. A charter ticket is still a roulette. For starters, there should be regulars. In the meantime, maintenance is profitable, we will use momEnt-more
I think the liquidation of the shopping mall will still backfire strongly. The version about unpreparedness for modernization is a utopia. The Chinese were not allowed to lend because of the trade wars. The British swear to the full extent of the state for not providing assistance to the TC (or malicious intent) It is difficult to imagine how these hardened conservatives are experiencing the very fact of the collapse of the national treasure. It seems that the powers that be are globally deciding something, since such a monster was drowned. TC would not become another Lehman Brothers
PS. Thanks admin for editing the title
аватар AllOverTheWorld
In the States, such (old) companies went bankrupt or were swallowed up by "thousands", about which we do not know, for some reason the Detroit crisis was remembered.
I, in the case of Thomas Cook, except for tourists, humanly feel sorry for ordinary employees, of whom there are more than one hundred.
аватар Pachok
In my subjective opinion:
1. Prices will not fall, but will rise. Simply because they grow for any reason, regardless of how this reason affects the cost.
2. Package tours will not stop using tours, and some would also take a chance if they were offered cheaper "the last tours of TC".
3. Semi-packet workers will switch to self-tourism. The share of such tourists in the South Caucasus and some other countries will increase.
4. German operators will receive good bonuses in the form of an increase in traffic.
5. More cheap and old planes will appear on the air transportation market of third countries (like us).
аватар Pachok
As for the financial benefits of organizing trips on your own, you need to look and calculate in each specific case.
I want to say, as an old-timer of this forum, that ten years ago I was virtually "fighting" with agents who argued that a tourist would disappear without a travel agency and that it could not be that the tourist himself turned out cheaper than a package :) Gradually us there were more and more, which reflected a general trend among the masses towards an increase in the number of independent trips.
But also with experience came to me the understanding of what to do on your own just to do it yourself is rather stupid. There are (!) situations when a tour is more convenient and profitable.
аватар AllOverTheWorld
When I first started flying, I didn’t even know about TA)))) (in 99, the first flight abroad, 2001 the first transatlantic) therefore, many questions, including on Turpravda, seem ridiculous to me in the age of high-speed, affordable Internet and all kinds of applications .
TA for me is simplicity and convenience, but of course only for certain areas)
аватар lazy_person
Here you can talk a lot about the "package tour", and about independent travel, and about the "age (s) of high-speed, affordable Internet ..", however, it is definitely clear to everyone that the "package tour", organized by companies such as "Thomas Cook ", this is still a very correct and promising way for the development of the industry. What will happen to the prices will show in the near future. People have traveled and will continue to travel to the resort. One giant ("Thomas Cook") has become less. According to the logic of the "market", prices should rise.
аватар AllOverTheWorld
Again, this is my subjective opinion!
For our mentality, the importance of TA and TO is greatly exaggerated.
My closest relatives have been living abroad for more than 20 years (Europe and America (not only the States), as well as their friends and acquaintances of friends, and none of them use or use TO and TA at all, although they actively travel.
Therefore, I do not see the prerequisites for rising prices, for rising unemployment and panic - yes.
In our country, the rise in prices simply depends on school holidays, on inventing some kind of non-seasons in some directions, and so on, although this is simply excess profit in our market.
In this thread, we are just expressing our opinion and sharing our thoughts.
Truth is born in a dispute
аватар klichko
It is very premature to bury TO. A package tour is convenient, often profitable. The reasons for the success are the language barrier, the transfer of responsibility, the ease of purchase, price flexibility, the range of services and tede. For Europeans, self-tour is more typical than for people from the Soviet Union. And for some reason, tens of millions of Europeans bought goods from shopping malls
A huge army of euro tourist villages is waiting for a refund ... or even worse, a return to their homeland. The rest sat quietly on the op (remember our recent fright, when small TOs went bankrupt and even anex was at risk). And hoteliers will have to fill the vacant colossal niche. The problem asks where does growth come from?
аватар AllOverTheWorld
"And hoteliers will have to fill the vacated colossal niche", on a global scale, this is a very narrow niche
The largest number of tourists are Chinese and Americans, and somehow I don’t hear about Chinese.
In Turkey, about 90% of the foreigners I talked to (over 15 years of visiting Turkey) booked everything themselves, the only thing is that most of them are repeaters, if the same resort, then the same hotel.
If you really go deep, world tourism has existed for a very long time, and for the post-Soviet space, let's say, it was developed only in the 90s
So the collapse of one of the TOs, albeit a very large one, does not belong to the global crisis. For the same Turkey, at one time, the loss of Rostourist was also a collapse for many, but, as it turned out, not such a collapse.
аватар klichko
and somehow I don’t hear Chinese
============
Likewise. But in front of our eyes, mass Chinese arrivals at Yegitskaya hotels, strictly in line. And also crowds of Chinese wildlings in Zurich, hysterically buying Vuitton Pradas on the whistle. Chinese and samotur antonyms
Turkish indeed evrika self-tour because there are plenty of regulars from some Bristol even to Bodrum. And how many do we have? In egi, the majority was from TK. Many hotels even had their own bracelets and privileges. But we are talking about sore points, about the impact on our market and our TOs, even if not for long. The burnt-out Anex did not sleep through the bankruptcy of TC. Let's see
There is no dispute about the crisis, we are already living in it, although we are struggling to hold back the spring. It's a matter of time, when and with what force will it shoot ... although I'm against it)
аватар AllOverTheWorld
We are like those cockroaches, the worse the crisis, the stronger we are!
Judging by the prices for Turkey in October-November, it does not smell like a low season.
аватар HotLine
Pachok, you didn't fight me 10 years ago. Even virtually.
There was no one but me, it seems.
Although, from your side, it may look like that.
I have always been interested in what experienced tourists write about. Sharing experiences is always cool.
But when they try to talk about tourism as a business, they almost always smile.
The problems of Thomas Cook have been known for a long time. And the problem here is not in the "packaging". TUI is still the largest operator in Europe and is operating successfully. By the way, the owner of Anex Tour was the last major buyer of Thomas Cook's shares.
Package tourism is growing successfully. Of the global negative trends, there is only one - its share in total tourism is decreasing. But due to the overall growth, the absolute size of this segment is also growing.
That is why big companies diversify their business - there are airplanes, and steamships, and hotels, and online. Bookings have already appeared on booking through external providers. Who do you think it is?
аватар klichko
Judging by the prices for Turkey in October-November, it does not smell like a low season.
============
We have already discussed and did not mind that organized euro groups are rare in Turkish, but everything is still the same (here it doesn’t smell) We are talking about the same egi, where almost all Europeans are packers. In the British group on FB, they are only concerned about returning the money, and the tours are bought right up to the next Christmas. About the trip and do not dream for the price in another way space. By the time they get better, we should have a huge surge in offers ... I think so (c)
аватар Vika284
From Bristol there are no regulars at all to Bodrum and there have not been for the last 12 years. Lots of London
From their English acquaintances who have a rest and live in Bodrum - all who bought package tours! through English tour operators and with departure from any airport in the UK, it does not matter the citizens of which countries they are protected by ATOL. According to the British, ATOL provides, in the event of bankruptcy of any TO, air tickets with a return to the UK, and if this has already happened to a vacationing tourist, then compensate for further accommodation in a modest hotel. Those who paid for the tours in advance, the same organization will return part of the money and the % of the money back depends on how the tour was paid for by which bank card and through which agent the tour was booked.
Basically, the problems are not with those who rest in Bodrum, but those who rest in Didim and Kusadasi when the airports are far away. But they organize free transfers to Bodrum and Izmir. According to the British, one of the reasons for bankruptcy is the payment of large dividends and bonuses to management.
аватар Senta
Today I already received from TA a mailing list in Belarus for Turkey, for 2020, for May, isn't it too early ??? And is it related to the above events???
аватар camomille
no. I saw the Republic of Turkey (and not only her) even before bankruptcy. something very early this year...
аватар HotLine
Tui's shares rose 6%.
TUI's package tourism revenues grew by 33.6% in 2018
"This was driven by higher customer volumes in Turkey, Greece and
North Africa."
The host offices received more than 27 million tourists. Including from the UK, which has the largest staff of employees TUI
аватар Vika284
The Tui group lost last year, and its debts rose to 1.3 billion euros.
аватар Pachok
HotLine With all due respect :) I remember our debate, and it's definitely not you who scared tourists here with insurance that is "not valid when buying excursions from street agencies", poor accommodation in hotels in Spain when booking through booking.com and stories that two people are going to Thailand for 2200 you can buy only a flight :)
There were, there were other agents here, however, they all disappeared somewhere :)
As for the situation as a whole with self-armor and TO, then for me personally, the speech of an agent with the nickname Orest about five years ago was very indicative. The bottom line was that she, as an agent, should only know about the package tour that she sells, and that's it. Any mention of, for example, low-cost airlines infuriated the lady. "I don't know what it is, and I don't need to know it" - something like this text. I do not think that the future belongs to such organized tourism.
аватар Pachok
We now have a TA, which we turn to if necessary, and we will not look for any other. It's a matter of individual approach. They will find and sell anything - at least in whole, at least in parts, at least through foreign agencies, tickets, reservations, some kind of their own person in the Indian wilderness who can meet, take, etc.
And it is also significant for me that the people who created this TA are former tourists. Very experienced and advanced.
And now there are more and more of them. And TripMayDream, and CleverTravel and about five others in my FB are constantly posting tours.
аватар ollennka
Vika284, where did you find the information that Tui had losses in 2018?
аватар Vika284
ollennka on Bloomberg, a net loss for the period from 1/10/18-31/03/19 -287 million euros, and the first half of 2018 they also had a loss of about 170 million euros, they suffered the main losses in 2018 due to the purchase of Boeing 737 MAX and tourism due to the summer heat in Europe 2018, this was also one of the reasons for a bad year for Thomas Cook
Debt as of 31/3/2019 amounted to EUR 1,964 million
аватар ollennka
Can you link? Debt is not a loss. According to the results of the whole 2018, their profit in their reports is ...
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